A minute for your Feedback please

Friday, June 10, 2016

Trading equity or commodity futures-a comparative analysis

In my view,  IF one’s views on a stock are driven primarily by the price of a particular commodity, then it may be better to invest directly in that commodity itself, due to more leverage, than trading via that future. This will be a more direct view and lower risk of trade slippage, as evident in below table where commodity futures wins over equity futures.


Parameter
Equity Futures
Commodity Futures
Overall winner-which results in less trade volatility
Trade impact Cost/
Market Depth
Depends on free float
Usually negligible
(high for Agri)
Commodities
Market Manipulation risk  on underlying asset
Possible(and has happened earlier on expiry)
Possible, but not easy to prove and usually counterbalancing forces prevail
Commodities
Stock specific issues causing value traps/spikes
Possible(eg Cairn loan to HZL-cash trap)
NOT APPLICABLE
Commodities
Sector valuations convergence
Possible-multiples may change due to ‘re-rating’
NOT APPLICABLE
Commodities
Insider Trading
Possible
Front running of OPEC meetings possible
Neither
Geopolitics factors volatility
Domestic level
International Level(but domestic drives agri also)
Neither
Market Trading Times
9:15am to 3:30pm; Monday to Friday
10:00 am to 11:30 pm(Agriculture till 5pm)-Monday to Friday
10am-2pm Saturday-only Agri
Commodities-Can be done AFTER full time job
Cash Settled
Compulsary
 Physical Settlement risk possible
Equities
Circuit Filter
+-20%
+-9%(or 4%-6%)
Commodities

No comments: