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Friday, June 10, 2016

Should you trade commodity markets or commodity stocks-an example of CAIRN India

Whenever I trade stocks in ‘commodity’ sectors such as sugar, metals, energy(or stocks dependent heavily on them), I wonder whether it is better to directly trade the underlying commodity or not.
Below example compares taking exposure on the related commodity future(CRUDE OIL) instead of taking on the related stock futures-CAIRN INDIA. Margins/Prices are taken from Zerodha margin calculator and are illustrative.
Parameter
Equity
Equity Futures
Commodity Future
Underlying security
CAIRN INDIA LTD
CAIRN INDIA LIMITED-JUNE16 FUT
CRUDE OIL
CMP
141.65
142.8
3347/barrel
MIN LOT SIZE
1 share
3000 shares
100 barrel
MIN TRADE SIZE
14.65
428400
334700
DELIVERY MARGIN
(% of trade size)
100%
13%
6%
INTRA DAY MARGIN MULTIPLE(times of delivery margin)
10x
2.5x
2x


From the above, it seems evident that IF one’s views on a stock are driven primarily by the price of a particular commodity, then it may be better to invest directly in that commodity itself, due to more leverage, than trading via that future. This will be a more direct view and lower risk of trade slippage, as evident in below table where commodity futures wins over equity futures. 

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