A minute for your Feedback please

Friday, June 10, 2016

Trading equity or commodity futures-a comparative analysis

In my view,  IF one’s views on a stock are driven primarily by the price of a particular commodity, then it may be better to invest directly in that commodity itself, due to more leverage, than trading via that future. This will be a more direct view and lower risk of trade slippage, as evident in below table where commodity futures wins over equity futures.


Parameter
Equity Futures
Commodity Futures
Overall winner-which results in less trade volatility
Trade impact Cost/
Market Depth
Depends on free float
Usually negligible
(high for Agri)
Commodities
Market Manipulation risk  on underlying asset
Possible(and has happened earlier on expiry)
Possible, but not easy to prove and usually counterbalancing forces prevail
Commodities
Stock specific issues causing value traps/spikes
Possible(eg Cairn loan to HZL-cash trap)
NOT APPLICABLE
Commodities
Sector valuations convergence
Possible-multiples may change due to ‘re-rating’
NOT APPLICABLE
Commodities
Insider Trading
Possible
Front running of OPEC meetings possible
Neither
Geopolitics factors volatility
Domestic level
International Level(but domestic drives agri also)
Neither
Market Trading Times
9:15am to 3:30pm; Monday to Friday
10:00 am to 11:30 pm(Agriculture till 5pm)-Monday to Friday
10am-2pm Saturday-only Agri
Commodities-Can be done AFTER full time job
Cash Settled
Compulsary
 Physical Settlement risk possible
Equities
Circuit Filter
+-20%
+-9%(or 4%-6%)
Commodities

Should you trade commodity markets or commodity stocks-an example of CAIRN India

Whenever I trade stocks in ‘commodity’ sectors such as sugar, metals, energy(or stocks dependent heavily on them), I wonder whether it is better to directly trade the underlying commodity or not.
Below example compares taking exposure on the related commodity future(CRUDE OIL) instead of taking on the related stock futures-CAIRN INDIA. Margins/Prices are taken from Zerodha margin calculator and are illustrative.
Parameter
Equity
Equity Futures
Commodity Future
Underlying security
CAIRN INDIA LTD
CAIRN INDIA LIMITED-JUNE16 FUT
CRUDE OIL
CMP
141.65
142.8
3347/barrel
MIN LOT SIZE
1 share
3000 shares
100 barrel
MIN TRADE SIZE
14.65
428400
334700
DELIVERY MARGIN
(% of trade size)
100%
13%
6%
INTRA DAY MARGIN MULTIPLE(times of delivery margin)
10x
2.5x
2x


From the above, it seems evident that IF one’s views on a stock are driven primarily by the price of a particular commodity, then it may be better to invest directly in that commodity itself, due to more leverage, than trading via that future. This will be a more direct view and lower risk of trade slippage, as evident in below table where commodity futures wins over equity futures. 

How individual investors are disadvantaged in the stock markets and what you can do to overcome it


Parameter
Disadvantage
What you can do/Turning it into an advantage
Access to institutional equity research reports
Quite limited, and chances of front running-circulation to preferred clients only
Read reports for the business insight, do the valuation/price targets yourself. Also, use sites like ICICI/MOFL and RJ.in for getting relevant reports
Algorithmic trading
Complex to set up and  practical challenges to run it
Buy algo strategies from places like return2wealth.com or else participate on sharp price moves to benefit from mistakes in the ‘prop algo’
Order Filling
Collocation so chances of front running order flow
Give enough steep margin so that losses are minimized eg-No market orders, falling knife
Risk Capital
Limited risk capital
Trade with capital you can LOSE once you have COMPOUNDED the returns you like
Seriousness
Chance of treating lightly/less attention as not a full time job, else distraction from full time job
Prepare shopping list(trading plan) and review at noon if any changes to it. Also treat it like a business with monthly P&L tracking
Team
Single man army/limited bandwidth or emotional support
No boss/second guess of decisions/autonomy
Market Access
Limited access to overseas markets or strategies like covered calls/Stock Lending
Advantage as can cover stocks which are screened out due to float etc
Charts/Software/Terminals
Not available to a day trader or individual investor
Avoid distraction-go for swing trades as far as possible-as Apps will not permit
Type of orders placed
Limitation from using basket etc which are not available on phone/app
Try and place stop loss/cover after entering the trade, if active monitoring not possible


Parameter
Usual institutional disadvantage
Your advantage
Scope of coverage
Usually 10-20 stocks if not more
Can decide what you wish to cover as per circle of competence-However do look at the macro picture also to avoid getting blindsided
Patient Capital Access
Usually impatient capital for mutual funds w/o lockin period-However private equity/PIPE funds/Prop Funds tend to be more patient
You can be patient capital not letting prices dominate your reason for existence
Returns benchmark
Limited risk appetite due to fear of underperformance vs relative returns
Absolute returns
Investment size+Diversification
Need a liquid and big investment to move the needle
Can do with small and concentrated portfolios as well